Investigating a conclave means stepping into a world where silence is sacred. Cardinal electors are bound by an oath of absolute secrecy, and revealing any details of the deliberations carries the penalty of automatic excommunication. Still, since May 8, information—some reliable, some speculative—has trickled out, offering insight into the dynamics that led to the election of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost. One key factor: the transfer of votes from conservative-leaning cardinals to a candidate who quickly emerged as someone able to transcend ideological camps.

By the fourth ballot, the American cardinal had reportedly secured over 100 of the 133 votes, well above the two-thirds threshold required for election. But what unfolded in the early stages remains murkier. Italian media have speculated about the first round: Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Vatican secretary of state, may have led with 40 to 50 votes, trailed by Prevost by about 10, or perhaps it was the other way around. Reports conflict, with some citing sources with fuzzy recollections.

Very little is known about the second and third rounds, which La Croix has learned were decisive. It took six years for similar data to emerge after the 2013 conclave.

Final decision

Sistine Chapel, Wednesday, May 7, 2025. At 5:46 p.m., the doors close. Inside, 133 cardinal electors are alone. The conclave begins.

For many, the setting is familiar: 12 gray-draped tables fill the nave, each with a name placard. The seating plan is no accident. Closest to the altar and Michelangelo’s Last Judgment are five seats reserved for cardinal-bishops—the most senior order. Among them: Prevost, a name some barely knew. “When I walked into the Sistine Chapel, he was the only one at my table I didn’t recognize,” one cardinal recalled.

Seated between Cardinal Louis Raphaël Sako of Iraq and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, Robert Francis Prevost was the newest addition to this elite group. Pope Francis had named him a cardinal-bishop on Feb. 6, just a week before being hospitalized—a final appointment. A sign? “In retrospect, I think Francis was preparing him,” said a close associate of Prevost. “What might seem like preparation wasn’t intentional,” countered Indian Cardinal Oswald Gracias, a former papal adviser.

Next table over

That evening in the Sistine Chapel, Cardinal Raniero Cantalamessa delivered a 45-minute meditation. “He ended by urging the future pope to simply be himself,” recalled American Cardinal Joseph Tobin. The first black smoke rose at 9 p.m.

By the next morning, tensions were rising. How would votes shift after the first ballot? One cardinal who had supported Prevost early on wondered how the conservatives, who had backed Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő, seated at a table near the bishops, would vote.

At that table, just three seats separated the two frontrunners: Prevost and Parolin. The two had crossed paths before, working together on a delicate church issue in Peru early in Francis’ pontificate. Now, both were drawing about two-thirds of the College’s support. As the second vote approached, the outcome was still uncertain. A stalemate could have forced the emergence of a compromise candidate, just as it had in October 1978, when the election of the future John Paul II broke a deadlock.

But momentum was building behind Prevost. His vote count rose in the second round. “There wasn’t a dramatic shift—support for him built steadily,” one elector explained. By the third round, he was close to the 89 votes needed. Outside, the black smoke signaled no decision at 11:51 a.m.

But back at the Domus Sanctae Marthae, where the cardinals returned for lunch, it was clear: the American would become the 267th successor of Peter. “By the third ballot that Thursday, I knew—we’d have a pope by evening,” said Belgian Cardinal Jozef De Kesel. “It was obvious,” confirmed an Asian cardinal. During the lunch break, the Augustinian even had time to prepare the speech he would soon read from the loggia—unlike some predecessors, who had to improvise.

Work of the Holy Spirit

There were no backroom deals between the morning’s votes. As required, the cardinals stayed locked inside the Sistine Chapel, praying silently—no coffee breaks, no sidebar conversations. “We never left, never talked,” said a European cardinal. “We felt something—a sense of the transcendent, of the Holy Spirit at work. When the third ballot was read aloud, something happened. Not outside in celebration, but inside. We were closed off to the world, open only to God.”

Prevost’s candidacy didn’t materialize out of nowhere on May 8. His name had been circulating in quiet dinners and discreet gatherings—some involving up to 20 cardinals—earlier in the week, including one on the campus of the Australian College near Trastevere.

“There were many meetings,” confirmed one cardinal who attended several. “Not to name names, but to talk about the qualities we wanted in the next pope.” These informal get-togethers—outside the Vatican’s official sessions—are nothing new but intensified during the October 2024 Synod on Synodality, which 61 of the 133 electors attended.

A unifying choice

Unlike in 2013, when Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio’s powerful speech during the general congregations helped secure his election, Prevost’s intervention this year, on the formation of future priests, didn’t make waves. “It wasn’t the substance, it was the way he spoke,” noted Cardinal Robert McElroy of the United States. More than words, it was Prevost’s quiet presence and attentive listening that left a mark. Latin American cardinals were eager to elect one of their own once again, and North Americans quickly embraced the idea of a “Chicagoan” leading the church.

Instead of shifting their votes to Parolin, who had drawn sharp criticism from ultraconservative media before the conclave, including fabricated reports of a health scare, many traditionalists rallied behind Prevost, described by one elector as a canon lawyer with “solid spirituality.” An African cardinal who voted for him put it simply: “And then, there’s the doctrine!” He was confident the new pope would uphold it. Filipino cardinals noted not only Prevost’s fluency in English but also his frequent visits to the Philippines while leading his order. They wasted no time inviting him back.

Before the conclave, one European cardinal had seen Prevost as a possible compromise if things stalled by Day 3. Instead, in less than 24 hours, the missionary and religious became the candidate of joyful consensus.

Panic in the kitchen

As the fourth and final vote was counted midafternoon, Cardinal Tagle noticed Prevost with his head in his hands, breathing deeply in quiet reflection. As the tally reached the required threshold, applause erupted. “We quickly reached consensus,” said De Kesel. A neighboring cardinal whispered one last piece of advice: “Choose your team well.” Then, as tradition dictates, and before donning white, the dean of the College asked him for his consent.

That role fell to Cardinal Parolin. “What struck me most was the peace on his face,” he said. Then, following the ritual, he asked: “Do you accept your election as Bishop of Rome?” Meanwhile, in the kitchens of Santa Marta, no one had yet realized that dinner—zucchini flan with bean velouté, asparagus and guanciale risotto, roast beef with gravy, and semifreddo with zabaglione—would have to be thrown together at breakneck speed. “What name will you take?” Parolin asked. The reply: Leo XIV.

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Reconstructing the 2013 Conclave

In his 2019 book The Election of Pope Francis: An Inside Account of the Conclave That Changed History, Vatican correspondent Gerard O’Connell shared what he uncovered about the five rounds of voting that led to the election of Pope Francis:

• First ballot: Angelo Scola: 30; Jorge Mario Bergoglio: 26; Marc Ouellet: 22; Seán O’Malley: 10; Odilo Scherer: 4; Others: 23
• Second ballot: Bergoglio: 45; Scola: 38; Ouellet: 24; Others: 8
• Third ballot: Bergoglio: 56; Scola: 41; Ouellet: 15; Others: 3
• Fourth ballot: Bergoglio: 67; Scola: 32; Ouellet: 13; Others: 3
• Fifth (final) ballot: Bergoglio: 85 (elected pope); Scola: 20; Ouellet: 8; Others: 2

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From Peru to the Vatican

Born in Chicago, Robert Francis Prevost spent years on mission in northern Peru before being elected Prior General of the Augustinians in 2001—a role he held until 2013.

In 2014, Pope Francis named him apostolic administrator, then bishop of Chiclayo in northern Peru. Six years later, he was called to the Vatican to join the Dicastery for Bishops.

In 2023, Prevost was appointed prefect of the dicastery, advising the pope on episcopal nominations. That same year, he was made a cardinal-deacon.

On Feb. 6, 2025—just weeks before his death—Pope Francis promoted him to cardinal-bishop.

On May 8, he was elected pope and took the name Leo XIV.