New Pope Update: Latest Odds on Who Will Replace Francis

Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin has reclaimed his position as the favorite to succeed the late Pope Francis, according to the latest odds released May 4 by leading bookmaker William Hill.

Newsweek reached out to the Vatican via email on Sunday for comment.

Why It Matters

The pope oversees the Catholic Church which had around 1.4 billion followers in 2023, according to the Vatican's Central Office for Church Statistics, easily making it the biggest church in the world.

This gives the pope significant influence across large swaths of the world. Previous incumbents have spoken out on a range of issues including poverty reduction and opposition to abortion.

What To Know

Parolin, the current Vatican City Secretary of State, now leads the betting market at 9/4, overtaking Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle who briefly held the favorite position just days ago. Tagle is now priced at 3/1 to become the first Asian pontiff in history, while Matteo Zuppi and Peter Turkson are both positioned at 6/1.

The odds represent a notable reversal from just two days ago when William Hill had Tagle as the favorite at 9/4 (30.8 percent) ahead of Parolin at 5/2 (28.6 percent).

Other significant shifts include Peter Turkson moving from 5/1 (16.7 percent) to 6/1, Matteo Zuppi improving from 11/2 (15.4 percent) to 6/1, Robert Sarah shortening from 10/1 (9.1 percent) to 8/1, and Pierbattista Pizzaballa holding steady at 8/1.

Peter Erdo has lengthened from 7/1 (12.5 percent) to 10/1.

Parolin has been praised for his diplomatic work, including mediating between the United States and Cuba. Known for his closeness to Francis, the Irish News described him as a "pragmatist" who wants "progress while adhering to the tradition and heritage of the Catholic Church."

He described a 2015 Irish vote to legalize same-sex marriage as "a defeat for humanity."

Francis' funeral took place on April 26 with world leaders including President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Prince William in attendance.

What People Are Saying

A declaration from the General Congregation stated: "The Cardinals exceeding the set limit have acquired, in accordance with paragraph 36 of the same Apostolic Constitution, the right to elect the Roman Pontiff, from the moment of their creation and publication."

What Happens Next

The conclave will begin on May 7, with electors sequestered in the Sistine Chapel until a new pope is chosen. Each ballot will require a two-thirds majority, and while some past conclaves have resolved quickly, others have taken several days.

How long the papal conclave process takes is largely dependent on the level of agreement within the College of Cardinals. White smoke will be released to announce a new pope has been selected.